Edmonton, the land of roughnecks and public servants, tradies and tech geeks. It’s a city that can’t be defined as one thing, and doesn’t really want to be. Diverse, entrepreneurial, steady Eddy, whose unique value proposition resides at the intersection between traditional and emerging sectors. It’s no wonder that people are taking notice, and not just because of our soon to be Stanley Cup Champions. In today’s unpredictable markets, institutional investment has become more conservative. When analysing commercial real estate opportunities, this has opened the door for smaller, private entities who are more capable of taking risks, to take advantage in markets like Edmonton that are not fully understood. For those that are comfortable with the fundamentals and flows of this market, investment opportunities are apparent.

While the transitions through business cycles can affect consumer confidence and create uncertainty in the financial markets, it’s important to realize we are still a long way off from 20% interest rates, and remain, at present, in historical low territory. Having said this, it’s obvious that a 3.25% increase in the BOC benchmark rate over just a 6-month period will have some tangible consequences. I am going to outline the facts behind affordability in the commercial real estate sphere compared to 12 months ago, and outline how this is affecting our owner/user clients (those who would occupy their own building) and our investor clients (who are looking for tenanted assets with a return on their money). Spoiler alert… property values are (gradually) eroding.

I’ve discussed at length the migration of industrial occupiers and capital investment into the Alberta market over the past 18 months due to the convergence of peak levels of demand, affordable development land, available warehouse space and unsustainable pricing in other major Canadian markets. As an industrial real estate broker, I get asked frequently if I’m seeing any slowdown in the industrial market due to increasing interest rates, inflation and lingering supply chain struggles. I’ll outline here why these local and global issues are having a much diluted effect on Alberta.

Working in the commercial real estate industry, you get a perspective of how large and multi-faceted this industry is, with hundreds of different jobs, roles, motivations, and ultimately types of assets that are managed, maintained, invested in, leased, and developed. For many outside of the industry, commercial real estate can seem like a "linear concept”, but it is far from that.

I recently had the enjoyment of sitting down with my esteemed colleague and friend, Chad Griffiths, Partner at NAI Commercial, and Gerald Tostowaryk, host of The Real World of Real Estate podcast, to discuss the past year and our upcoming projections for the Alberta industrial real estate market.

It wasn’t so long ago that the Edmonton sub-markets of Nisku and Leduc were hailed as the oil and gas heartbeat of the Region. These industrial parks established themselves as the incubators for oil and gas manufacturers, service providers, fabricators, transporters, and many others, aiding in growing our Province’s resource production to all time highs. Edmonton is the capital of the North, but Nisku and Leduc are among the workhorses that allowed the real North to be developed.

Over the past few years, investors have taken an increased notice in the temperature controlled real estate sector, expanding both their build-to-suit developments, as well as those speculative in nature. The ever-growing demand for fresh food on a global scale, in addition to the storage requirements for temperature-sensitive pharmaceuticals, has created a uniquely desirable asset class, showcasing currently its added benefit of being relatively recession proof.

The catchphrase of the moment is proving to hold its weight as we analyze commercial real estate trends leading into the new year. Canada’s Multifamily market is the strongest it’s ever been with rental rates nearing 10-year highs, apartments near 100% occupancy, and volatility remaining low. On the industrial front, demand for fulfillment space continues to reign supreme to satisfy the multiplying growth metrics in e-commerce.

The commercial real estate industry continues to transform, creating new opportunities and challenges for users and service providers alike. These trends are affecting the commercial real estate sectors individually (Industrial, Retail, Office, Hospitality and Multi-Family), as well as the industry as a whole. Being knowledgeable and able to adapt to these changes will create opportunities instead of threats for those [so lucky] to be involved.

If you've driven past or to the Edmonton International Airport (EIA) lately, you'll likely have noticed that it is a changing and growing landscape.  The EIA innovatively came up with a Master Plan for the future of the land surrounding the Airport that involved making available much of the Airport's under-utilized land for the purpose of commercial development by private companies.

This past week at the Edmonton Real Estate Forum, the Industrial Panel took a run at some of the huge challenges faced by industry in the Edmonton market due to the ever increasing property tax rates and reimbursement expectations from our Councillors.  With over 1.5 Million square feet of industrial product under construction this past quarter (Q1 2018) and the majority being located outside of Edmonton, what more can we say.

The cannabis industry has proven to be a game changer in states that have already gone through recreational legalization, and from what we are currently witnessing locally, there's no doubt that it is already having a tangible effect on our commercial real estate market here in Edmonton. 

In an article published today by the Financial Post, Earnest Research has analyzed debit and credit transaction data to reveal that 89% of all holiday spending, beginning after American Thanksgiving and ending at Christmas, was captured by the retail giant Amazon.  The close second?  Wal-Mart at a whopping 4.4%.  

While the industrial and commercial markets in Alberta have been far from a pretty picture, The North American industrial market as a whole has experienced a record-setting run, registering some of the strongest leasing tallies and tightest market conditions on record.  In particular, the industrial market in the United States, largely due to the huge growth in e-Commerce, has been unstoppable.   

Edmonton's third quarter was a quiet one in the industrial sector, as is often typical for the summer months, with a meaningful pick up entering into the fall months of September and October.   If you're interested in learning more, check out this quick video clip where I discuss some of the factors at play among Tenants and Landlords, Purchasers and Vendors in our market. 

It's safe to say that we are finally coming out of the trough of this current market cycle.  However, we have been witnessing something interesting happening within our industrial market, particularly between the multi-tenant and single-tenant product classes.  Click here to find out more.

It's no secret that Amazon released a Request for Proposals last week to determine the location of their new headquarters - HQ2.  Every major City is jumping at the opportunity to have a company of this magnitude enter their market, to say nothing of the billions in capital expenditure and thousands of jobs created.   Take a look at what their top decision drivers are here.

After months, or rather years, of doom and gloom for the derelict malls that encompass huge swaths of land in our urban epicenters, a pathway has presented itself for the landowners of these properties.  One solution to the woes of these Class B and C malls is their conversion into warehouse space for the ever growing and expanding E-Commerce market.

Take a look at the quarterly reports and videos that outline the commercial real estate transactions and trends of Q1 2017 in the Greater Edmonton Area.  Have we really hit the bottom? 

Construction projects are made up of a combination of hard costs and soft costs that must be budgeted with accuracy in order to ensure the success of the project, but what is the difference between these hard and soft costs?