In what appears to be a long, slow road ahead for the Alberta marketplace, it is essential that the City of Edmonton and the City of Calgary find ways to spend smarter, not harder, in order to improve the entrepreneurial mindset in these cities, increase business confidence, and slow the outward migration.

This week I wanted to jump back into my ‘Hotelie’ roots and highlight trends of the Canadian Hospitality Industry. Though not discussed as frequently, the lodging industry in Canada makes up a large part of the commercial real estate transaction volume in our country. In fact, 2016 and 2017 saw roughly $4.1 Billion and $3.5 Billion, respectively, in total transaction volume, the highest numbers in over ten years!

Canadian oil and gas production has long since become the scapegoat of the modern energy contradiction.  That is, many around the world are demanding a switch to green, renewable energy, calling for a complete elimination of the oil and gas industry, yet the data shows that global fuel usage from oil continues to grow year after year. 

The commercial real estate industry continues to transform, creating new opportunities and challenges for users and service providers alike. These trends are affecting the commercial real estate sectors individually (Industrial, Retail, Office, Hospitality and Multi-Family), as well as the industry as a whole. Being knowledgeable and able to adapt to these changes will create opportunities instead of threats for those [so lucky] to be involved.

The cannabis industry has proven to be a game changer in states that have already gone through recreational legalization, and from what we are currently witnessing locally, there's no doubt that it is already having a tangible effect on our commercial real estate market here in Edmonton. 

In an article published today by the Financial Post, Earnest Research has analyzed debit and credit transaction data to reveal that 89% of all holiday spending, beginning after American Thanksgiving and ending at Christmas, was captured by the retail giant Amazon.  The close second?  Wal-Mart at a whopping 4.4%.  

While the industrial and commercial markets in Alberta have been far from a pretty picture, The North American industrial market as a whole has experienced a record-setting run, registering some of the strongest leasing tallies and tightest market conditions on record.  In particular, the industrial market in the United States, largely due to the huge growth in e-Commerce, has been unstoppable.   

The Butterfly Effect perpetuates that "something as small as the flutter of a butterfly's wing can ultimately cause a typhoon half way around the world" - Chaos Theory.  Although the oil & gas market is more of a behemoth than a butterfly, the trends that it maps out have an enormous ripple effect on nearly all other industries, especially in our "diversified" province of Alberta.  See my latest video where I discuss this effect here...

The strength of Edmonton's industrial market has a lot to do with the strength of the many surrounding markets that further support the City's industries and connect the communities as a whole.  Have a look at this video clip where I discuss the strength of Edmonton's peripheral markets.

Edmonton's third quarter was a quiet one in the industrial sector, as is often typical for the summer months, with a meaningful pick up entering into the fall months of September and October.   If you're interested in learning more, check out this quick video clip where I discuss some of the factors at play among Tenants and Landlords, Purchasers and Vendors in our market. 

It's safe to say that we are finally coming out of the trough of this current market cycle.  However, we have been witnessing something interesting happening within our industrial market, particularly between the multi-tenant and single-tenant product classes.  Click here to find out more.

When we think of innovation and trends leading us into Edmonton's future regarding our commercial developments, a few words must now come to mind... Simons Londonderry Mall.  Not likely the general public's first thought, but since Londonderry Mall announced their $130 Million renovation and redevelopment plan in 2014, this has come to fruition, notably due to the largest solar system in Edmonton that now swathes the new Simons development.

It's no secret that Amazon released a Request for Proposals last week to determine the location of their new headquarters - HQ2.  Every major City is jumping at the opportunity to have a company of this magnitude enter their market, to say nothing of the billions in capital expenditure and thousands of jobs created.   Take a look at what their top decision drivers are here.

After months, or rather years, of doom and gloom for the derelict malls that encompass huge swaths of land in our urban epicenters, a pathway has presented itself for the landowners of these properties.  One solution to the woes of these Class B and C malls is their conversion into warehouse space for the ever growing and expanding E-Commerce market.

So I recently learned about a new office space phenomenon that's truly taking over the world - collaborative, shared spaces that allow for community, innovation and services - no matter the size of your company or aspirations, all while on a membership basis.  In particular, one company called WeWork is leading the pack in this exponentially growing niche.

There is a shift happening in the residential and lending markets across Canada.  The combination of declining market values, decreased liquidity, rate increases and a new stress-testing model have created uncertainty in the future of our mortgage market as it stands.

How much value do you place on the accessibility of a City when you think of its potential for growth and development?

As we near the midway mark of 2017, it's been exciting to see the changes to our Downtown Skyline as existing development projects near completion, while others break ground and continue to mold our core.

Take a look at the quarterly reports and videos that outline the commercial real estate transactions and trends of Q1 2017 in the Greater Edmonton Area.  Have we really hit the bottom? 

There is a new bet on Wall Street that is beginning to gain steam.  The bearish short against Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS), specifically securities backed by loans taken out by shopping mall operators, is being coined as the next Big Short.